Inaugural ‘Commercial Construction Index’ Indicates High Revenue, Employment Expectations for 2017

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Commercial construction is in high demand across the country and contractors are confident in the trajectory of the industry, according to the USG + U.S. Chamber of Commerce Commercial Construction Index recently launched. Nearly all contractors surveyed – 96 percent – expect revenues to grow or remain stable this year compared to 2016, with 40 percent expecting an increase and only 3 percent expecting a decrease in revenue.

The index is a new quarterly economic indicator designed to gauge what drives the commercial construction industry and its leaders, including specific issues like backlog of work, new business pipeline, revenue projections, workforce issues and access to financing. Given the sector’s importance to the U.S. economy and the outsized role it could play in years to come, the data contained in the index will be vital to better understanding trends, challenges and opportunities. The research was developed with Dodge Data & Analytics.

Two-thirds (66 percent) of contractors said they expect to employ more workers in the next six months, indicating growth in a sector that employs approximately 3 million Americans. But 61 percent of index respondents reported difficultly finding skilled workers. The contractors reported the biggest shortages in the concrete, interior finishes/millwork, masonry, electrical and plumbing trades.

The report looks at the results of three leading indicators – backlog levels, new business opportunities and revenue forecasts – to generate a composite index on a scale of 0-100 that serves as an indicator of health for the contractor segment on a quarterly basis. The Q2 2017 composite index score was 76, representing continued health in the sector. This composite score is up two points from a 74 in the Q1 survey, driven primarily by a bump in the ratio between actual and ideal backlog. New business and revenue results also saw slight increases quarter-over-quarter.

The composite scores from the three drivers of confidence were:

• Backlog: 81, up four points in Q2 over Q1
  • Contractors’ current average backlog levels represent 81 percent of their ideal backlog levels, up from 77 percent in Q1. On average, contractors hold 9.9 months of backlog, while the ideal amount is 12 months.
• New Business: 77, up two points in Q2
  • Nearly all contractors continue to report high or moderate confidence in the market. Well over half of contractors (59 percent) reported high confidence in new business over the next 12 months (up from 51 percent in Q1), indicating a shift to higher levels of confidence among some respondents.
• Revenues: 71, up two points in Q2.

An overwhelming 96 percent of contractors expect revenues to grow or remain stable in 2017 over 2016. Of those expecting revenue increases, the actual percentage of expected increases varies widely. Forty percent expect revenue increases of 7 percent or more in the next 12 months.

The index findings are compiled using survey results from contractors within a DD&A panel of more than 2,700 decision makers from across key facets of the commercial construction industry. This first public report was developed using research from previous quarters, which puts into context the state of contractor sentiment in the U.S. building industry.

The inaugural index is, and each quarterly index published going forward will be, available on the USG website at www.usg.com/news, as well as on the website www.CommercialConstructionIndex.com.