WASHINGTON, D.C. – Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4 percent through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects.
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. Learn more about this Consensus Construction Forecast online.
“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, Ph.D. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
| Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts | 2019 | 2020 |
| Overall nonresidential building | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Commercial/industrial total | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Hotels | 3.9% | -0.7% |
| Office space | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Retail | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Industrial total | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Institutional total | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Public safety | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Healthcare facilities | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Education | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Amusement / recreation | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Religious | -2.6% | -1.2% |
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