Uneven Growth Persists Across Nonresidential Construction as Economic Uncertainty Lingers

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The nonresidential construction market continued to face headwinds during the first five months of 2026 as spending fell 7 percent in nominal dollars compared to the same period a year earlier. Reflecting this softer market performance, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel lowered its 2026 projection from a 1.0 percent increase in spending, forecast in January, to a 0.3 percent decline. Despite near-term challenges, panelists expressed greater confidence in a rebound next year, increasing their 2027 spending forecast from 2.2 percent to 3.0 percent. Manufacturing construction experienced the most significant downward revision in the current forecast. Spending in the sector … Read more

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Spending on Nonresidential Building Construction Continues to Slow

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Spending on nonresidential construction is projected to increase only 1.7% this year and grow very modestly to just 2% next year, according to The American Institute of Architects mid-year Consensus Construction Forecast. The outlook by the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast estimates the commercial sector outlook is about on par with the broader industry, with a projected 1.5% increase this year rising to 3.9% in 2026. Spending on the construction of manufacturing facilities – the industry bright spot in recent years – is expected to decline 2% this year with an additional declined of 2.6% next year. Institutional facilities are expected … Read more

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AIA Releases Construction Forecast: Healthcare Construction to See Modest Gains Through 2025

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Spending on nonresidential buildings will see a modest 4% increase in 2024, after increasing by more than 20% last year according to The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast. The pace will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025, a marked difference from the strong performance in 2023. Although construction spending in the nonresidential building sector is projected to be at a slower pace through 2025, healthcare construction spending is projected to see gains. Although modest, the sector is expected to increase 3.6% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025. Complete details can be found at aia.org. The … Read more

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Nonresidential Construction Spending Expected to Moderate Through 2024

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While spending on nonresidential construction picked up momentum toward the end of 2022, construction spending will moderate in 2023 and slow significantly in 2024, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects. Despite macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation, rising interest rates and weak consumer sentiment scores, the AIA’s Consensus Construction Forecast panel is projecting nonresidential construction spending to grow 5.8%  in 2023 but slow to under 1% in 2024. Similar to 2022, growth in construction spending in 2023 will be uneven with a projected 2.6% increase in the commercial sector, 15.1% for industrial facilities and 4.1% for … Read more

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AIA Reports Healthy Outlook for Nonresidential Construction Market

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WASHINGTON, D.C. – With construction spending continuing on an upward trajectory, 2016 can be considered a successful year for the nonresidential building sector.  For the coming year, the American Institute of Architects semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast is projecting growth in overall nonresidential building spending of almost 6 percent, just below the pace of growth for 2016. The commercial construction sectors – retail, office and hotel – will continue to lead the building recovery, while industrial construction is projected to see almost no increase this year. For 2018, the institutional construction sectors will generate much of the growth, particularly the large … Read more

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